![]() ![]() The first thing I wanted to do was set up some baselines for different statistics for quarterback luck. After all, you can measure a good pass and a bad pass, but what happens once the ball leaves a quarterback’s hand is completely out of his control. Still, you have to account for drops in both, which is why the interceptable catches statistic and drops can go a long way towards measuring quarterback luck. A pass that hits a DB in the hands should be an interception and the same with a wide receiver. With quarterbacks, it’s a little bit different. It’s hard to measure how many yards a running back should have had because each twitch of the ball carrier, of a blocker, of a would-be tackler sets off a butterfly effect that means you can’t really tell what would have happened if an RB hadn’t missed a lane, or if they’d slipped that ankle tackle. With football, you generally measure what happened, rather than what should have happened. The idea to quantify quarterback luck came with my discovery of the interceptable passes and expected touchdowns statistic on. With that in mind let’s answer the question: who was the luckiest quarterback in 2021, and what does this mean for 2022? I will denote skippable portions that outline the process in italics, so you can skip those portions should you already understand the process. The process remains the same, but the results will be different. This is an update to an article that I wrote in 2019, and, if you read that article, you can skip sections of this one. ![]() As a 49ers fan, I can’t help but think about Jaquiski Tartt’s dropped interception towards the end of the NFC Championship Game, which was lucky for Matthew Stafford, who then went on to win the Super Bowl.īut, I contend, we can quantify quarterback luck. A certain amount of luck seems to come into play. When discussing quarterbacks, there’s something ineffable about their luckiness some quality bestowed upon them from on high that aids in their predetermined destiny. ![]()
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